How much should we sequence? An analysis of the Swiss SARS- CoV-2 surveillance effort (preprint)

Background During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, many countries directed substantial resources towards genomic surveillance to detect and track viral variants. There is a debate over how much sequencing effort is necessary in national surveillance programs for SARS-CoV-2 and future pandemic threats. Aim We aimed to investigate the effect of reduced sequencing on surveillance outcomes in a large genomic dataset from Switzerland, comprising more than 143k sequences. Methods We employed a uniform downsampling strategy using 100 iterations each to investigate the effects of fewer available sequences on the surveillance outcomes: (i) first detection of variants of concern (VOCs), (ii) speed of introduction of VOCs, (iii) diversity of lineages, (iv) first cluster detection of VOCs, (v) density of active clusters, and (vi) geographic spread of clusters. Results The impact of downsampling on VOC detection is disparate for the three VOC lineages , but many outcomes including introduction and cluster detection could be recapitulated even with only 35% of the original sequencing effort. The effect on the observed speed of introduction and first detection of clusters was more sensitive to reduced sequencing effort for some VOCs, in particular Omicron and Delta, respectively. Conclusion A genomic surveillance program needs a balance between societal benefits and costs. While the overall national dynamics of the pandemic could be recapitulated by a reduced sequencing effort, the effect is strongly lineage dependent - something that is unknown at the time of sequencing - and comes at the cost of accuracy, in particular for tracking the emergence of potential VOCs.

Reconstructing transmission chains of SARS-CoV-2 amid multiple outbreaks in a geriatric acute-care hospital (preprint)

Background There is ongoing uncertainty regarding transmission chains and the respective roles of healthcare workers (HCWs) and elderly patients in nosocomial outbreaks of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in geriatric settings. Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study including patients with nosocomial coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in four outbreak-affected wards, and all SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR positive HCWs from a Swiss university-affiliated geriatric acute-care hospital that admitted both Covid-19 and non-Covid-19 patients during the first pandemic wave in Spring 2020. We combined epidemiological and genetic sequencing data using a Bayesian modelling framework, and reconstructed transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 involving patients and HCWs, in order to determine who infected whom. We evaluated general transmission patterns according to type of case (HCWs working in dedicated Covid-19 cohorting wards: HCWcovid; HCWs working in non-Covid-19 wards where outbreaks occurred: HCWoutbreak; patients with nosocomial Covid-19: patientnoso) by deriving the proportion of infections attributed to each type of case across all posterior trees and comparing them to random expectations. Results During the study period (March 1 to May 7, 2020) we included 180 SARS-CoV-2 positive cases: 127 HCWs (91 HCWcovid, 36 HCWoutbreak) and 53 patients. The attack rates ranged from 10-19% for patients, and 21% for HCWs. We estimated that there were 16 importation events (3 patients, 13 HCWs) that jointly led to 16 secondary cases. Most patient-to-patient transmission events involved patients having shared a ward (97.6%, 95% credible interval [CrI] 90.4-100%), in contrast to those having shared a room (44.4%, 95%CrI 27.8-62.5%). Transmission events tended to cluster by type of case: patientnoso were almost twice as likely to be infected by other patientnoso than expected (observed:expected ratio 1.91, 95%CrI 1.08 - 4.00, p = 0.02); similarly, HCWoutbreak were more than twice as likely to be infected by other HCWoutbreak than expected (2.25, 95%CrI 1.00-8.00, p = 0.04). The proportion of infectors of HCWcovid were as expected as random. The proportions of high transmitters ([≥]2 secondary cases) were significantly higher among HCWoutbreak than patientnoso in the late phases (26.2% vs. 13.4%, p<2.2e-16) of the outbreak. Conclusions Most importation events were linked to HCW. Unexpectedly, transmission between HCWcovid was more limited than transmission between patients and HCWoutbreak. This highlights gaps in infection control and suggests possible areas of improvements to limit the extent of nosocomial transmission.

Swiss public health measures associated with reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmission using genome data (preprint)

Genome sequences allow quantification of changes in case introductions from abroad and local transmission dynamics. We sequenced 11,357 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Switzerland in 2020 - the 6th largest effort globally. Using these data, we estimated introductions and their persistence throughout 2020. By contrasting estimates with null models, we estimate at least 83% of introductions were adverted during Switzerland's border closures. Further, transmission chain persistence roughly doubled after the partial lockdown was lifted. Then, using a novel phylodynamic method, we suggest transmission in newly introduced outbreaks slowed 36 - 64% upon outbreak detection in summer 2020, but not in fall. This could indicate successful contact tracing over summer before overburdening in fall. The study highlights the added value of genome sequencing data for understanding transmission dynamics.

Occupational versus community risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among employees of a long-term care facility: an observational study (preprint)

Objectives: We investigated the relative contribution of occupational (vs. community) exposure for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection among employees of a university-affiliated long-term care facility (LTCF), during the 1st pandemic wave in Switzerland (March to June 2020). Methods: We performed a nested analysis of a seroprevalence study among all volunteering LTCF staff to determine community and nosocomial risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity using modified Poison regression. We also combined epidemiological and genetic sequencing data from a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak investigation in a LTCF ward to infer transmission dynamics and acquisition routes of SARS-CoV-2, and evaluated strain relatedness using a maximum likelihood phylogenetic tree. Results: Among 285 LTCF employees, 176 participated in the seroprevalence study, of whom 30 (17%) were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2. Most (141/176, 80%) were healthcare workers (HCWs). Risk factors for seropositivity included exposure to a COVID-19 inpatient (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] 2.6; 95%CI 0.9-8.1) and community contact with a COVID-19 case (aPR 1.7; 95%CI 0.8-3.5). Among 18 employees included in the outbreak investigation, the outbreak reconstruction suggests 4 likely importation events by HCWs with secondary transmissions to other HCWs and patients. Conclusions: These two complementary epidemiologic and molecular approaches suggest a substantial contribution of both occupational and community exposures to COVID-19 risk among HCWs in LTCFs. These data may help to better assess the importance of occupational health hazards and related legal implications during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 spread in Switzerland based on genomic sequencing data (preprint)

Pathogen genomes provide insights into their evolution and epidemic spread. We sequenced 1,439 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Switzerland, representing 3-7% of all confirmed cases per week. Using these data, we demonstrate that no one lineage became dominant, pointing against evolution towards general lower virulence. On an epidemiological level, we report no evidence of cryptic transmission before the first confirmed case. We find many early viral introductions from Germany, France, and Italy and many recent introductions from Germany and France. Over the summer, we quantify the number of non-traceable infections stemming from introductions, quantify the effective reproductive number, and estimate the degree of undersampling. Our framework can be applied to quantify evolution and epidemiology in other locations or for other pathogens based on genomic data.

SARS-CoV-2 viroporin triggers the NLRP3 inflammatory pathway (preprint)

Cytokine storm resulting from a heightened inflammatory response is a prominent feature of severe COVID-19 disease. This inflammatory response results from assembly/activation of a cell-intrinsic defense platform known as the inflammasome. We report that the SARS-CoV-2 viroporin encoded by ORF3a activates the NLRP3 inflammasome, the most promiscuous of known inflammasomes. ORF3a triggers IL-1 beta expression via NFkB, thus priming the inflammasome while also activating it via ASC-dependent and -independent modes. ORF3a-mediated inflammasome activation requires efflux of potassium ions and oligomerization between NEK7 and NLRP3. With the selective NLRP3 inhibitor MCC950 able to block ORF3a-mediated inflammasome activation and key ORF3a residues needed for virus release and inflammasome activation conserved in SARS-CoV-2 isolates across continents, ORF3a and NLRP3 present prime targets for intervention.

Remdesivir Metabolite GS-441524 Efficiently Inhibits SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Mouse Model (preprint)

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly spreads across worldwide and becomes a global pandemic. Remdesivir is the only COVID-19 treatment approved by U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA); however, its effectiveness is still under questioning as raised by the results of a large WHO Solidarity Trial. Herein, we report that the parent nucleotide of remdesivir, GS-441524, potently inhibits the replication of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Vero E6 and other cells. It exhibits good plasma distribution and longer half-life (t1/2=4.8h) in rat PK study. GS-441524 is highly efficacious against SARS-CoV-2 in AAV-hACE2 transduced mice and murine hepatitis virus (MHV) in mice, reducing the viral titers in CoV-attacked organs, without noticeable toxicity. Given that GS-441524 was the predominant metabolite of remdesivir in the plasma, the anti-COVID-19 effect of remdesivir may partly come from the effect of GS-441524. Our results also supported that GS-441524 as a promising and inexpensive drug candidate in the treatment of COVID-19 and future emerging CoVs diseases.

Daily viral kinetics and innate and adaptive immune responses assessment in COVID-19: a case series (preprint)

BackgroundViral shedding patterns and its correlation with the immune responses of mildly symptomatic COVID-19 patients are still poorly characterized. MethodsWe enrolled the first five COVID-19 patients quarantined in our institution; none received immunomodulatory treatment. We monitored shedding of viral RNA and infectious virus by RT-PCR and cell culture from the upper respiratory tract, and characterized the kinetics of systemic innate and adaptive immune responses. ResultsDespite mild clinical disease, high viral loads and shedding of infectious virus were observed from the respiratory tract, with isolation of infectious virus and prolonged positivity by PCR up to day 7 and 19 post onset of symptoms, respectively. Robust innate responses characterized by an increase in activated CD14+CD16+ monocytes and cytokine responses were observed as early as 2 days after symptoms onset. Cellular and humoral SARS-CoV-2 specific adaptive responses were detectable in all patients. ConclusionInfectious virus shedding was limited to the first week of symptom onset in mild cases. A strong innate response, characterized by the mobilization of activated monocytes during the first days of infection, as well as SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies were detectable, even in patients with mild disease. SummaryWe describe viral and immune profiles of the first five SARS-CoV-2 patients in our institution, showing high viral loads and infectious viral shedding in early acute disease. Mild patients mount an innate response sufficient for viral control and specific immunity.